GoldenCheekedWarbler_HotterandDrier_Diamond_David_ColumbiaMO_15June2022_Reel4113.mp3

David Diamond [00:00:00] The thing that worries me now is climate change.

David Diamond [00:00:04] We were too stupid to realize, and we should have, that climate change was coming and temperatures were increasing.

David Diamond [00:00:12] And that has two effects.

David Diamond [00:00:14] One is on the bird themselves. It is my understanding that they suffer from heat stress even currently, and they go to water a lot while they're on the breeding range. So there's direct potential for direct harm to their breeding success from increased temperatures like a series of very hot years.

David Diamond [00:00:37] And then the other obvious issue is if it does get drier (definitely going to get hotter), but it may also get drier. And if that happens, then the habitat, the deciduous species and the Ashe junipers, may suffer mortality.

David Diamond [00:00:54] There was a big drought in 2011, and extended in some places, people think, to 2014, and it killed a lot of trees in Texas. Texas A&M Forest Service estimated the amount of tree death. And, you know, I have photographs that were taken by colleagues in Texas of dead junipers, just, just, covering the entire image.

David Diamond [00:01:24] You know, this is mainly shrubs that had died, mainly to the north and to the western side of the Edwards Plateau.

David Diamond [00:01:35] So junipers will die from drought and they, ironically, may be more susceptible to dying from drought than the oaks. You know, you think of Ashe junipers of being in dry habitats, and they can grow in fairly dry habitats, but they also are very shallow-rooted. So they potentially suffer from droughts more than the oaks and the oaks are growing in, and have their roots down in cracks in limestone, and they're in valley bottoms, they're in mesic areas on slopes. They, they may suffer less actually from droughts than Ashe junipers.

David Diamond [00:02:12] But anyway, that's ironic. That's weird. I don't think I can convince people of that, but it's nonetheless documented. Hess documented it in a, in a study, a Ph.D. study on Sonora Research Station in 1954 and then recently, all those dead junipers were really eye-popping from the 2011 drought.

David Diamond [00:02:36] But anyway, the warblers may be in trouble, not just from clearing or from things like that. They may be in trouble from climate change. And it's something we didn't even consider. And that may be the biggest threat to them right now.